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Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts

Friday, August 20, 2010

How Long Will Deflation Last and Then What?

Question:

Real quick, the last time we spoke you mentioned to put our money in cash because of deflation and the banking collapse, but if we hit inflation in a few years would we need to then move it out of cash. I thought I remember us talking about inflation taking place closer the six year mark.

Let me know what you think.


Answer:

When it comes to predicting when scoundrels will be outed and then pull out all the stops to screw everyone regardless of whether it's obvious or not, it becomes a very difficult prediction indeed. There is no substitute for watching and being vigilant. Having said that, my guess would be 2-3 years but perhaps as long as six. The markets should hit bottom in about six years.

In answer to your question, yes at some point it will be appropriate to move out of cash. A likely sign will be that everyone will think you're crazy for doing so because everyone will be in agreement that deflation is the future and that there is no way inflation could re-emerge. Just the opposite of what it is now. Right now everyone knows that inflation is the future and thinks its crazy to be in cash. The only thing consistent about everyone following the crowd is that they always end up being wrong when it comes to investing.



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Sunday, July 18, 2010

Market Update - July 14, 2010 - Investor X


MARKET UPDATE 
July 14th, 2010 
Investor X 

The earnings season started off with a big bang yesterday as good news from Alcoa sent the markets rallying. Aluminum and copper use is so widespread and spans so many industries, especially the construction industry, many analysts view Alcoa’s performance as being indicative of the overall health of the economy. So, what was the good news reported from Alcoa? 

Alcoa cut 37,000 jobs, aluminum prices have dropped 20% in just the past three months as demand has dropped off a cliff, China has significantly reduced its purchases of aluminum and analysts estimated that Alcoa’s earnings would be 20 cents a share. Alcoa reported earnings of 13 cents per share or 35% below analyst’s expectations. As a result of this good news, Alcoa’s stock price charged ahead by nearly 4.5% at yesterdays opening. 

You say, “What is so good about that news?” Oh, I forgot to mention that the 20-cent analyst expectation was the expectation reported last month. During the past month however, analysts have been busy reducing their expectations by 40% so by the time Alcoa reported its earnings of 13 cents per share, analysts expectations were 12 cents. This beat analyst’s expectations by a penny and that is the good news that was the catalyst for yesterday’s rally in the markets. This just goes to prove that if you lower the bar far enough, any bad news can become really good news. 

The reduction of analyst expectations before earnings are reported is a game that has been played on Wall Street for years. However, a 40% reduction in one month is a tad much wouldn't you say? If aluminum is a proxy for the overall health of the economy going foreword, what is the real message being broadcast here? In my opinion, it is showing weakness in the overall economy and that will become apparent by other numbers and statistics as they are reported. Stay tuned; we may be watching a whip saw unfolding here. 

Regards, 


Investor X

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Thursday, July 15, 2010

The Markets Are Alive With the Sound of Manipulation

23 June 2010 / Issue #50
Andrew Packer

My dad may be the one who taught me all I needed to know about finance, but my mom taught me how to gracefully handle being self-conscious. You see, like many parents, she has a knack for telling friends embarrassing stories about me.

For example, growing up she’d often tell my friends about how I watched the movie The Sound of Music every day when I was five years old. This was a bigger embarrassment when I was a teenager, but as an adult, it still throws me off guard.

Now, I really don’t want to contradict my mother... nor do I want to confirm anything embarrassing she has to say about me.

But what I AM going to say is that one particular scene from that movie has been stuck in my mind lately. Why? Well, on Monday, the market opened up huge — but gave back all the gains later in the day and closed pretty flat. A smaller version of this erratic market happened again yesterday... The day opened with a rally but fell apart, sending stocks below their 200 day moving average (the technical trigger traders refer to as bear market territory). And with such little trading volume, it’s apparent to most major players that 'quants’ (the folks who program and run computerized trading programs at major firms) are clearly in charge.


Seeing the attempts to continue manipulating the market upwards reminded me of one particular movie scene... ...only without the merriment.

It doesn’t take much to manipulate a market in this low-volume environment. And I can prove it to you. If I really wanted to, I could drive the price of Citigroup up 50%. And it would only set me back around $600. It’s currently trading at $4.00 per share, so if I put in an order to buy 100 shares at $6.00, I’m sure there would be plenty of shareholders willing to sell at that price. Of course, it’s silly to waste money like that.

But in theory, buying at that price may mislead others into thinking Citigroup is a worthy investment. Who knows, by the act of overpaying for those shares, the perception of increased value may result in that higher price sticking! And when perception is reality, it’s best to be wary of markets. That’s when the manipulation is the worst.

And it happens! Just last week, the new 'circuit breakers’ in the stock market kicked in when a few trades in the Washington Post Company (WPO) came in at more than double the prior price of the shares.


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Thursday, July 8, 2010

To All My Valued Employees - Signed "Your Boss"

Below is a rant from a small business owner that most other business owners will be able to relate to in spades. In fact its a pretty common story among business owners. A large number of the business owners that I know have shared with me that they have independently come to the same conclusion this business owner has arrived at and are currently making plans to close down their operations once the new tax hikes take effect. 

Perhaps this reveals the difference between genuine stimulus and the imaginary illusions that are now being sold to the public. I suppose we will find out after the tax hikes of 2011 and 2013 go into effect.


To All My Valued Employees 

There have been some rumblings around the office about the future of this company, and more specifically, your jobs. As you know, the economy has changed for the worse and presents many challenges. However, the good news is this: The economy doesn't pose a threat to your job. What does threaten your job however, is the changing political landscape in this country. However, let me tell you some little tidbits of fact that might help you decide what is in your best interests.

First, while it is easy to spew rhetoric that casts employers against employees, you have to understand that for every business owner there is a back-story. This back-story is often neglected and overshadowed by what you see and hear. Sure, you see me park my Mercedes outside. You've seen my big home at last years Christmas party. I'm sure; all these flashy icons of luxury conjure up some idealized thoughts about my life.

However, what you don't see is the back-story.

I started this company 28 years ago. At that time, I lived in a 300 square foot studio apartment for 3 years. My entire living apartment was converted into an office so I could put forth 100% effort into building a company, which by the way would eventually employ you.

My diet consisted of Ramen Pride noodles because every dollar I saved went back into this company. I drove a rusty Toyota Corolla with a defective transmission. I didn't have time to date. Often times, I stayed home on weekends, while my friends went out drinking and partying. In fact, I was married to my business -- hard work, discipline, and sacrifice.

Meanwhile, my friends got jobs. They worked 40 hours a week and made a modest $50K a year and spent every dime they earned. They drove flashy cars and lived in expensive homes and wore fancy designer clothes. Instead of hitting the Nordstrom's for the latest hot fashion item, I was trolling through the Goodwill store extracting any clothing item that didn't look like it was birthed in the 50's. My friends refinanced their mortgages and lived a life of luxury. I, however, did not. I put my time, my money, and my life into a business with a vision that eventually, some day, I too, would be able to afford these luxuries my friends supposedly had.

So, while you physically arrive at the office at 9am, mentally check in at about noon, and then leave at 5pm, I don't. There is no "off" button for me. When you leave the office, you are done and you have a weekend all to yourself. I unfortunately do not have that freedom. I eat, and breathe this company every minute of the day. There is no rest. There is no weekend. There is no happy hour. Every day this business is attached to my hip like a 1 year old special-needs child. You, of course, only see the fruits of that garden -- the nice house, the Mercedes, the vacations... You never realize the back-story and the sacrifices I've made.

Now, the economy is falling apart and I, the guy that made all the right decisions and saved his money, have to bail-out all the people who didn't. The people who overspent their paychecks suddenly feel entitled to the same luxuries that I earned and sacrificed the flower of my youth for.

Yes, business ownership has is benefits but the price I've paid is steep and not without wounds. Unfortunately, the cost of running this business, and employing you, is starting to eclipse the threshold of marginal benefit and let me tell you why:

I am being taxed to death and the government thinks I don't pay enough. I have state taxes, Federal taxes, Property taxes, Sales and use taxes, Payroll taxes, Workers compensation taxes, Unemployment taxes, Taxes on taxes. I have to hire a taxman to manage all these taxes and then guess what? I have to pay taxes for employing him. Government mandates and regulations and all the accounting that goes with it, now occupy most of my time.

On Oct 15th, I wrote a check to the US Treasury for $288,000 for quarterly taxes. You know what my "stimulus" check was? Zero. Nada. Zilch. The question I have is this: Who is stimulating the economy? Me, the guy who has provided 14 people good paying jobs and serves over 2,200,000 people per year with a flourishing business? Or, the single mother sitting at home pregnant with her fourth child waiting for her next welfare check? Obviously, government feels the latter is the economic stimulus of this country.

The fact is, if I deducted (Read: Stole) 50% of your paycheck you'd quit and you wouldn't work here. I mean, why should you? That's nuts. Who wants to get rewarded only 50% of their hard work? Well, I agree which is why your job is in jeopardy.

Here is what many of you don't understand ... to stimulate the economy you need to stimulate what runs the economy. Had suddenly government mandated to me that I didn't need to pay taxes, guess what? Instead of depositing that $288,000 into the Washington black-hole, I would have spent it, hired more employees, and generated substantial economic growth. My employees would have enjoyed the wealth of that tax cut in the form of promotions and better salaries. But you can forget it now.

When you have a comatose man on the verge of death, you don't defibrillate and shock his thumb thinking that will bring him back to life, do you? Or, do you defibrillate his heart? Business is at the heart of America and always has been. To restart it, you must stimulate it, not kill it.

Suddenly, the power brokers in Washington believe the poor of America are the essential drivers of the American economic engine. Nothing could be further from the truth and this is the type of change you can keep.

So where am I going with all this? It's quite simple.

If any new taxes are levied on me, or my company, my reaction will be swift and simple. I fire you. I fire your co-workers. You can then plead with the government to pay for your mortgage, your SUV, and your child's future.
Frankly, it isn't my problem any more. Then, I will close this company down, move to another country, and retire. You see, I'm done. I'm done with a country that penalizes the productive and gives to the unproductive. My motivation to work and to provide jobs will be destroyed, and with it, will be my citizenship.

If you lose your job, it won't be at the hands of the economy; it will be at the hands of a political hurricane that swept through this country, steamrolled the constitution, and will have changed its landscape forever. If that happens, you can find me sitting on a beach, retired, and with no employees to worry about....

Signed,

-Your boss-

The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who are not. - Thomas Jefferson


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